‘Undecided’ voters will decide battleground state North Carolina. Can Trump convince them?

WILMINGTON, N.C. — If Donald Trump wishes to win North Carolina, he’ll need to win voters like Mike Mowatt. In many ways, Mowatt is the prototype swing voter in this swing state: He’s retired, and North Carolina will have more 65-and-up voters this cycle than ever. He cares deeply about the economy, as North Carolinians do, more than any battleground state. He’s not particularly excited by Kamala Harris, even though he voted for the Democratic nominee in both 2016 and 2020. He is, as he told me shortly before Trump’s Saturday rally, “Trump-curious.”
The Trump-curious are a shrinking group. In this, Trump’s third run for the presidency in as many cycles, only a fraction of voters remain uncertain. At this point in 2016, 22% of voters were still up for grabs; now, that figure is down to 4% or 5%. In North Carolina, that group could be as big as 8%, higher than any other battleground state. That’s a fraction of the total electorate, but with national polling showing razor-thin margins, a fraction will decide the next president. Trump’s purpose Saturday was to engage that fraction.
That’s why Mowatt showed up Saturday, standing in sweltering heat on a tarmac at Wilmington International, waiting for Trump’s arrival. He dressed inconspicuously: a dark T-shirt and unmarked ball cap, amid a sea of red hats and Trump-themed merch. Kamala Harris is in a “tough situation,” he told me, trying to define herself this close to Election Day. “A hurdle she has to overcome is being associated with the Biden administration for the past four years,” he said.
Trump, however, poses his own problems.
“One thing that concerns me about the former president,” he told me, “is the way he has talked about the military. I find it somewhat disrespectful.” (North Carolina fancies itself “the most military-friendly state.”) Trump’s recent comments on immigrants in Springfield, Ohio, are of concern to Mowatt as well — “I expect leaders to not propagate clearly demonstrated falsehoods,” Mowatt said.
Another glaring issue in North Carolina for Republicans, including Trump, is the recent revelation that the state’s Lt. Gov. Mark Robinson, whom Trump endorsed for governor, has a history of derogatory statements.
Robinson, CNN reported Thursday, has called for the return of slavery and referred to himself as a “Black Nazi” on a porn website, leading to a quick series of condemnations from other high profile North Carolina officials. Does that sway Mowatt’s view of Trump? “Normally, I would say it wouldn’t have an impact, but I’ve heard the former president endorsed the guy … .” His voice trailed off.
To others at the rally, it was as if the Robinson incident — which led the political news cycle for much of Thursday and Friday — never happened. Robinson didn’t make an appearance at the rally, and Trump never mentioned him during his hourlong speech.
Several attendees brushed the incident off. “I hope (the comments) are out of context,” Kathy Swain, 72, said. “They tend to do that, the Democrats. They take things out of context.” But can calling yourself a “Nazi” ever be appropriate, with or without context? “No, but people use that term. You hear Democrats use it. A lot of people use that term in politics. I wish they wouldn’t, but it’s just one of the things that they use.” Donovan Burke, 58, added that he hates to “see those allegations and stuff, but I still support him.”
Gary Justice, 67, agreed. “You got to put all that stuff in perspective,” he said. “Politics is a dirty game. They’ll do anything they can to make you look bad. … That’s just propaganda. Everybody knows it.” So, I asked, what CNN reported — some of which was so graphic it was withheld — is false? “Yeah,” Justice said. “I’ve seen a lot of presidential elections. This is probably the worst, as far as propaganda and slants go.”
That’s why he’s supporting Trump — to restore civility. “(Trump) just treats people with respect generally,” Justice said. “To me, that’s what it’s all about. I respect you. You respect me. He treats everybody the same.” (During his speech, Trump called Gov. Tim Walz a “lunatic” and said Harris needs to “get the hell out” of the White House.)
Justice’s son hopped in. Cole, 22, just got his real estate license and lives in nearby Brunswick County. “The cost of living is insane,” he said. “And for young people like me, the future doesn’t look bright.” His support for Trump, he said, is simple: He wants a better economy. “Bringing the economy back, bringing more jobs in, getting the interest rates cut, all that as a whole,” he said. He wishes other voters his age agreed. “In my opinion, I think that the younger population is pretty stupid, and I think that’s attributed a lot to social media in general,” he said. “I think people see whatever is posted online and run with it. I don’t think anybody takes the time to do their own research.”
Nearby was a couple in their early 30s from Swansboro. Ashton Merritt’s birthday is next week, and her husband, Eric, brought her to the rally as an early gift. The day was to be sweet and celebratory, punctuated by a family-centered gesture by Trump himself, bringing his two young grandchildren — Luke, 7, and Carolina, 5 — onstage with him. “Vote for grandpa,” Luke said, to a cheering crowd.
“The biggest things for us are the things that, you know, impact us directly,” Eric said. “You know, prices of goods, fuel prices, you know, electricity, all the stuff.” Eric works in real estate — when Trump was in office, he said, “I was doing a lot better. People had more buying power.” Harris’ economic plan, which includes aid for first-time homebuyers, doesn’t appeal to him. “We give something like that away, we diminish the American dream,” he said. His wife, Ashton, jumped in. “Where’s the money going to come from?”
Trump’s economic promises — tax cuts, massive tariffs and ramped-up energy production — sound much better to this crowd than Harris’ “opportunity economy” plan. “Our country’s going to hell in a handbasket,” said Jack McNear, 76, a self-described independent voter. “And I don’t know if (Trump) can straighten it out, but I sure don’t think Kamala can.”
Mowatt wasn’t so confident. Mid-conversation, Trump’s voice boomed through the speakers, and a pre-recorded video flashed onstage: “We’re going to have the good, secure, beautiful elections,” Trump said, encouraging his followers to vote. “We never want what happened in 2020 to happen again.” Democrats, he said, “cheat — and frankly, it’s the only thing they do well.”
Mowatt pursed his lips. “That’s another thing I would like to hear him explain,” he said, referring to Trump’s claims that the 2020 election was stolen. “I think most people believe that’s not true. Why keep repeating it?”